Saturday, August 05, 2006

Short Sharp Military Operation?

I'm referring to Southern Lebanon.

After my false optimism about the prospects of peace the following facts are now clear:

a. The Israeli Military action has thus far succeeded only in destroying Civil Infrastructure

b. Hezbollah do not need Civil Infrastructure, they have been preparing themselves for 10 years for Guerilla warfare in the most basic and primitive of settings;

c. The Israeli Infantry operation has not yet encountered the real crack Hezbollah troops i.e the professional soldiers. All the Israelis have encountered (with limited success) are the fringe battle groups, the former being reserved for the inward push that the Israelis are unwisely being drawn into.

d. Hezbollah may be murderous, cynical terrorists, but I shall correct my previous assessment, they are not cowards. These guys are not just ready, but eager to die and they are a lethal combination- stringent Cold Military professionalism, Training and Equipment with the mindset of suicide bombers.

e. The action by the Israelis to destroy the command and control and logistical infrastructure of Hezbollah has failed woefully because Hezbollah has always had a fragmented and complex c + c structure and immune to the standard deterrent operations.

f. The Israeli army has not faced military opposition of this type for several years, conbat readiness is greatly suspect. This is not Palestine. The present Israeli army both in command and on the field is nothing like the Ideologically charged war machines of 1948, 1967 and 1973 (commanded by- Dayan, Sharon, Rabin, Tal, Peled, Ben-Gal Kahalani and Gur and the opponents were certainly different. The motivation was different.

g. Removing Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon is a big Joke, as Warnerd has said, they are Southern Lebanon.

The Israelis are in a pickle and the deeper they get the more likely it is that they're going to need the help of the over-extended US and God forbid British forces. If it wasn't real it would be funny.

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