Who won the Iraqi War?

My mate the war nerd wins again hands down, here's his most recent article please take your time and read:

FRESNO, CA -- A funny thing happened on the floor of the Senate last week. Somebody asked a serious question: "If the war in Iraq is lost, then who won?"

Of course Sen. Lindsay Graham, the guy who asked the question, didn't mean it to be serious. He was just scoring points off Harry Reid, the world's only Democratic Mormon. Reid had made a "gaffe" by saying in public what everybody already knows: "The war in Iraq is lost." When you say something obviously true in politics, it's called a "gaffe."

So Graham, McCain's bitch, jumps in to embarrass Reid with his question. But let's take the question seriously for a second here: who won in Iraq? To answer it, you have to start with a close-up of the region, then change magnification to look at the world picture. At a regional level the big winner is obvious: Iran. In fact, Iran wins so big in this war that I've already said that Dick Cheney's DNA should be checked out by a reputable lab, because he has to be a Persian mole. My theory is that they took a fiery young Revolutionary Guard from the slums of Tehran, dipped him in a vat of lye to get that pale, pasty Anglo skin, zapped his scalp for that authentic bald CEO look, squirted a quart of cholesterol into his arteries so he'd develop classic American cardiac disease, and parachuted him into the outskirts of some Wyoming town. And that's how our VP was born again, a half-frozen zombie with sagebrush twigs in his jumpsuit, stumbling into the first all-night coffee shop in Casper talking American with a Persian accent: "Hello my friends! Er, I mean, hello my fellow Americans! Coffee? I will have coffee at once, indeed, and is not free enterprise a glorious thing? Say, O brethren of the frosty tundra, what do you say we finish our donuts and march on Baghdad now, this very moment, to remove the Baathist abomination Saddam?"

It took a couple years for Cheney-ajad to get his American accent right and chew his way into Bush Jr.'s head, but he made it like one of Khan's earwigs, got us to do the Ayatollahs' dirty work for them by taking out Iraq, their only rival for regional power. Iraq is destroyed, and Tehran hasn't lost a single soldier in the process. Our invasion put their natural allies, the Shia, in power; gave their natural enemies, the Iraqi Sunni, a blood-draining feud that will never end; and provided them with a risk-free laboratory to spy on American forces in action. If they feel like trying out a new weapon or tactic to deal with U.S. armor, all they have to do is feed the supplies or diagrams to one of their puppet Shia groups, or even one of the Sunni suicide-commando clans.

All these claims that Iran is helping the insurgents really make my head spin. Of course they're helping. They'd be insane if they weren't. If somebody invades the country next door, any state worth mentioning has to act. If Mexico got invaded by China, you better believe the U.S. would react. We'd lynch any president who didn't.

Gentlemen's bet: which leader's country will benefit more from America's idiotic wars?
What really amazes me is how patient Iran has been about it, how quiet and careful. They've covered their tracks carefully and kept their intervention to R&D level: just enough to keep Iraq burning, and patiently test out news IEDs.

But that's the Persian way: behind all the yelling, they're sly, clever people. If Iranian intelligence really wanted to flood Iraq with weaponry that would turn our APCs into well-insulated BBQs, they could have done it long ago. It's clear they're not doing that. They're smart enough to follow Napoleon's advice not to interfere with an enemy in the process of destroying himself - and stockpiling the new IED designs on their side of the border in case we're stupid enough to invade.

The situation in Iraq right now is optimum for Iran. Iraq is like a nuclear reactor that they can control by inserting and removing control rods. If Shia/Sunni violence looks like cooling off, Tehran's agents, who've penetrated both sides of the fight, play the hothead in their assigned Sunni or Shia gangs and lobby for a spectacular attack on enemy civvies or shrines - whatever gets the locals' blood up. Then, if things get too hot, which would mean the U.S. getting fed up and leaving, they drop a control rod into the reactor core by telling Sadr to call off his militia or letting the Maliki regime stage some ceremony for the TV crews, the kind that keeps the Bushies back in Ohio convinced it's all going to come out fine.

They need to keep us there, because - makes me sick to say it but it's true - our troops are now the biggest, strongest control rod the Persians are using to set the temperature of this war. They want us there as long as possible, stoking the feuds and making sure nobody wins. That's what we just did under Petraeus: switched sides, Shia to Sunni, because the Shia were getting too strong. Yeah, God forbid we should be unfair to the Sunnis, God forbid we should do anything to let somebody win. Let's just make Tehran happy by keeping the feud going another few centuries.

One thing Iran is pretty clearly not scared of is every American amateur's dream: a punitive U.S. invasion of Iran. In fact, like North Korea, their partner in the Axis of Evil, Iran is all but begging us to invade. Guys in junior high used to hold their chins out, tap them with a finger and say, "Come on, fucker, come on, hit me!" That's Iran now, chin out and begging for a right hook. Because with all the anti-armor know-how they've gained by now, they have traps waiting for us that would make Lara Croft's cave expeditions look like a backyard tea party. Even Cheney's team knows that, which is why they're talking about air raids on Iran these days, not invasion.

Another way countries can win in a regional war like this is from the money flooding in. The big winners of the Vietnam War were Thailand, Malaysia and Hong Kong. Thailand went from a failed state with a half-dozen insurgencies everywhere outside its central valley to a rich, happy tourist paradise during Nam. Modern Thailand is a country built on the backs and, uh, other body parts of its bar girls. Every time a GI spent his pay at the ping-pong shows in Bangkok, Thailand gained foreign exchange. The neon got brighter, the huts went split-level, and the Commie rebels swatting mosquitoes out there in the elephant grass started to feel a little foolish. Finally they said the Hell with it, bought suits and went Yuppie.

That's one way to beat an insurgency: bribe it. Unfortunately, the two neighboring states likely to benefit from the Iraq war are...yup, those twin towers of evil, Syria and Iran. Just imagine how much money is flowing into their border provinces right now. Need any U.S.-issue supplies, weapons, toilet paper, or GPS units cheap? Just ask at any bazaar in Damascus or Tehran. Uncle Sam's guarantee of quality - fell off the back of a two-and-a-half ton truck.

See, this is why I keep thinking Cheney's got to be an Iranian mole. How could he not see that a war in Iraq benefits noncombatant neighboring states? He had to know. He can't be that stup - Wait, I withdraw the comment.

Some paranoids want to list Israel among the winners, but I don't see it. Perle, Feith and Wolfowitz thought invading Iraq would help Israel, or rather Likud, but like everything else these geniuses predicted, it didn't happen. Iraq was never a threat to Israel. Iran is. And Iran is much stronger now. Last summer's war with Hezbollah was one the Israelis didn't really want to fight, but Cheney insisted. That was the deal, I guess: the U.S. takes out Saddam, then you take out Hezbollah. Instead, the IDF looked scared and weak in South Lebanon, so now Hezbollah and Iran are the poster-boys of every red-blooded Muslim kid on the planet.

Remembering Emmanuel

Emmanuel was about 6ft 6 when we were at Uni 24 years ago. Slim, dark and soft spoken, but could drink half of Nigeria under the table without slurring- scary! The most notable thing about him, aside from his height being his bright red or yellow trousers, which often billowed on account of his slim physique and the generousity of the tailor who constructed the damn things

I last saw him in Lagos in 1991, after we graduated, he told me he was on his way to Germany - seeking greener pastures as we do. He graduated with a 2:1 in Accountancy, a really bright hard-working guy, I felt sure he would do well in whatever he would do or at least be comfortable.

I was to hear about six months ago, that he died in 1999, the cause? Well..the way it was put to me was that he died whilst doing the "Kidney thing". In simple terms, he had travelled to Germany and plainly was an illegal immigrant who was forced to eke out a living in the black economy and had gotten involved in the notorious organ trade. Emmanuel had sold his Kidney(s) to survive and had died from complications from the Surgery and/or complications arising from the loss of the organ(s).

A sad waste of a strong, intelligent young man and a lasting shame on the vermin who rule Nigeria and other African countries and force vibrant youth into desperation. It may have been his choice, but it is a Hobson's choice for a lot of young Africans

The blood of the dead and dying of a lot of young and old is on the hands of African leadership, I am truly sad and ashamed.

I hope Emmanuel has found peace.

Pitbulls are for sissies?!

Now then, the photo above was taken on the streets of Lagos, Nigeria. The gentleman with the Leopard isn't a Game warden, but rather a street thug, known locally as "area boys", the equivalent of your Hoodie muggers.

As is clearly obvious he doesn't need a knife, hence it lends credence to David Cameron's implied mantra, hug a hoodie, at least there's little chance of having your leg chewed off.

Post script:

I've been corrected by those more knowledgeable, its actually a Hyena, not a Leopard. I stand chastised.

Message from a Sister

I was pleasantly surprised to see a reply to my post from this lady, who is obviously a Nigerian and felt moved enough by her logic to publish her reply, please read.

Junegirl said...

Hi, I happened on your blog and I kept scrolling down... I thought it wasn't going to end. Yes, I found it quite informative although I certainly couldn't read everything (am supposed to be at work.)

From the things you write, I get the feeling you're very old,(for people of my generation, 40's ancient.)I most especially like the post on legitimately succesful Nigerians abraod. Do us all a favour by promoting it well across the www cos Nigeria's image is becoming increasingly dented by the activities of a mere fraction of the entire population.

As for the Omoiguis( hope i got the spelling), I'm happy for them, but do you think things would have turned out that way for them if they'd had to survive in the present day Nigeria? Take a look at this scenario:

Your father's a hardworking, honest Nigerian who works hard to take care of his family. He sends you to Federal Govt College,Ogbomosho or Govt. College, Ibadan( he really cannot afford to send you to Atlantic Hall or Adesoye's). Several times during your secondary eduation, you come home on compulsory hols because teachers are on strike; they've not been paid 4 months' salaries. When you're not at home, you're drumming on your desks in class, while your classmates are dancing. Why, your teachers are too busy trading in order to supplement their meagre income.

YOu sit for JAMB and score 236/400. Good score! Only that some others bought thequestions before the exam and so scored 350. Resultantly, the cut-off for your choice score is way to high. While you ponder whether to sit for another JAMB or settle for a course you don't like, your neighbour, whose father knows the vice- chancellor gets admitted for the same course with a Jamb score of 203. You spend 7 years in school for a 4 year course because of ASUU strikes. You graduate and employers say if you're above 24, do not bother applying. Meanwhile, your roommate in Bello hall, who graduated with a 3rd class and whose uncle is the chairman, Senate commitee on Petroleum manages to get a job in Mobil Oil Producing...who says foriegn coys don't want govt favours....
Tell me, is this the same Nigeria you grew up in?

11:03 AM